RaboResearch Agri Commodities
RaboResearch agri commodity analysts break down the key developments shaping global agricultural commodity markets. They cover markets from tropical commodities to grain and oilseeds, discussing weather disruptions, geopolitical developments, and shifts in supply and demand. The podcast provides insights on wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, cocoa, and more. It aims to help listeners manage price risk, plan procurement, and monitor market opportunities with timely analysis and practical perspectives.
Afleveringen
October WASDE – The corn ultimatum
In the latest episode of the Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera, Head of Agri Commodities Markets Research, and Charles Hart, Senior Commodity Analyst, discuss the implications of the October WASDE report for global grains and oilseeds markets. The USDA caught markets off guard with an upward revision to US corn yields, while ongoing logistical challenges in the Black Sea prompted further cuts
September 2026 WASDE signals: Black Sea risks, Chinese demand, and tighter corn stocks
In this RaboResearch podcast, Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts Andrick Payen and Carlos Mera examine the implications for agricultural commodity markets arising from revisions to wheat, soybean, and corn estimates in the September 2026 USDA WASDE report. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer
El Niño drives prices more than fundamentals
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a 75% probability of the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950. Some of the textbook impacts are already visible in the fields, but market reactions appear to have been amplified by speculative fund positioning. For now, El Niño is driving prices more than fundamentals. Join Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort as they discuss the impli
Coffee at a turning point
Coffee prices have remained elevated for several years, but after reaching record highs in 2025 they have fallen significantly. Has the market finally returned to normal, or is there more downside ahead? Join Oran van Dort and Carlos Mera as they discuss the key drivers of coffee prices, from developments in the Red Sea and the EU Deforestation Regulation to the latest global supply and demand out
Energy shock waves: From Hormuz to Russia
Energy prices have been both elevated and highly volatile in 2026, with Brent crude oil rising from USD 60/bbl at the start of the year to USD 88/bbl as of August 17, 2026. The war in Iran and the subsequent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have been responsible for much of the upward pressure on energy prices, while recent attacks on Russian refineries and export infrastructure have contributed
August WASDE: Trouble in the Black Sea
In this RaboResearch podcast, Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts Charles Hart and Andrick Payen discuss some of the highlights from the USDA's August WASDE. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.
USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks: Wheat surprises
In this RaboResearch podcast, Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts Charles Hart and Andrick Payen discuss some of the highlights from the USDA's recent Acreage and Grain Stocks reports and what the reports will mean for grain and oilseed markets moving forward. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/discla
Cocoa conversations: Cocoa strikes back
After a relatively subdued period between March and April, volatility has returned to the cocoa market in force. Cocoa prices, still down 23.5% year-to-date, have rallied 31% since the beginning of May as bullish fundamentals reemerge. Key drivers include the transition toward an active El Niño event, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a slow start to the development of West Afri
Espresso economics: High production, low prices
Coffee prices have dropped by 32% in the last six months due to an increase in production. As the availability of coffee in origin increases, stocks in destination countries are still scarce, and some volatility is expected before we see even lower prices. Join Oran van Dort and Carlos Mera as they discuss these and many other topics affecting much of the world's favorite beverage. This episode w
Is there a global food crisis coming?
Since the war in Iran began, fertilizer prices have been climbing steadily. US Gulf urea prices alone are up around 40% since the start of the conflict and nearly 80% year‑to‑date, putting intense pressure on farm economics. In several regions, farmer margins are now razor‑thin – or outright negative – raising the risk of reduced fertilizer use and significant cuts in planted wheat area ahead of t
The cocoa crash explained
Cocoa futures in London and New York have had a rough start to the new year, plummeting 30% YTD following a wave of bearish fundamentals hitting the market in January. In this podcast, Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort discuss the latest crash, explaining the role of deteriorating demand, evidence of easing market tightness, favorable West African weather, and the significant influence of speculators,
Coffee prices: Short term and long term diverge
Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort discuss the spike in coffee prices. Despite so many factors affecting the coffee market in the last couple of years, global exports in the 12 months to August remained remarkably stable. A significant drop in Brazilian exports is being offset by increases in a number of countries, from large producers like Vietnam and Colombia to tiny Madagascar. Looking at the 2026/2
The WASDE whispers: What markets did not hear on June 12
Join Carlos Mera and Charles Hart as they unpack the USDA's June WASDE report in the latest ACMR podcast. At first – and even second – glance, this month's WASDE might seem like a nonevent. The absence of revisions to major forecasts was conspicuous, but the changes that the USDA did not make are where the report's significance lies. We'll examine the department's current harvest outlooks for seve
Espresso economics: The coffee rally explained
The second half of November saw coffee prices igniting, with arabica prices pushing well past USD 3/lb, a level not seen since 1977, and robusta prices breaking all-time records. Arabica prices have increased 109% over the last twelve months. Meanwhile, robusta prices, which have been elevated since the Houthi-induced Red Sea disruptions last December, have risen 92% in the last year and an astron
The cocoa rally explained
The cocoa rally shows no signs of slowing, with the London March24 contract up 58% YTD. Meanwhile, the New York contract set a new all-time high in the first half of February, surpassing, in nominal terms, the previous record set in 1977. Since then, prices have moved 20% higher! In this podcast, we discuss the factors contributing to this unprecedented price rally. In our view, recent price acti
January 2024 WASDE: Disciplined consumers are rewarded
Last Friday the USDA released a catalogue of data: the January WASDE, quarterly grain stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. The releases were largely bearish and confirmed the views held in our 2024 outlook (Buyers sail home on rising supplies) of higher-than-expected production and weaker demand. Consumers who have been disciplined are now being rewarded in terms of lower global G&O price
Grain & oilseed markets move south
Join Rabobank's Agri Commodity Markets Research team for a deep dive into grain and oilseed markets. Since our bearish 2024 outlook was published on November 15, grain and oilseed prices have slid as bargaining power continues to shift from farmers to consumers. North American 2023 grain harvests are set to outpace demand and pad stockpiles, encouraging funds to take on heavy short positions. The
Bulls feed on old grain
The October WASDE was viewed as a bullish report by the market, with corn, soy, and wheat futures all rising following its release. For corn in particular, it was higher old crop feed demand that caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, for wheat markets, we saw 2023/24 estimations for both global production and trade trimmed. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/di
Softs Rally Hard
Since the start of the year we have seen simultaneous rallies in sugar (+15%), cocoa (+28%), and robusta coffee (+47%). This is rather unusual given these three commodities have very different fundamentals and are produced in very different countries. The threat of El Niño-related weather challenges is the one common element that has led to speculators increasing their long bets across these three
April WASDE: USDA Cuts Argentine Yields
With minimum alterations for most countries, the April WASDE's main talking point was cuts in Argentine production for soybeans, wheat, and corn amid the ongoing drought. As these cuts were expected, we saw little price action following the report's release. Eyes will now turn to next month's WASDE, which will provide the first estimates of the 2023/24 season. Please read our disclaimer here: http
Outlook 2023: Tightening the Belt
Join Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz for a look at the year ahead in ACMR's latest podcast. 2022 held unprecedented volatility for agricultural commodity markets, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to La Niña drought across South America. Consumers suffered through a third year of an agricultural bull market. It could very well be the last. Rabobank expects broad-based price relief in 2023 as
October 2022 WASDE: USDA Scissorhands
On the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the report was bear
September WASDE: USDA's Struggle Session
In the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities episode, Global Grains & Oilseeds Strategist Steve Nicholson joins ACMR Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the September WASDE. ACMR's August WASDE Report predicted the USDA "may rue their bold move" to raise US soybean yields. Indeed, this week the USDA did a dramatic 180, cutting US soy (and corn) yields and reducing demand to avoid outright s
Momentum
On the latest ACMR podcast, Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz and Analyst Paul Joules discuss the recent price movements in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures. Tune in to hear about the 2022/23 harvests, the latest WASDE report, funds bouncing back, and overarching demand-side concerns. From a supply standpoint, heavy heat across the US and Europe poses a significant risk to feed grain and oilse
Funds in the Sun
Head of Agri Commodities Markets Research Carlos Mera and Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the recent pullback in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean prices. Tune in to hear about recent bearish dynamics: speculative capitulation, the worsening macroeconomic backdrop, shrinking demand, and the potential for a sea route for Ukrainian supplies. From a supply standpoint, however, fundamentals are s
High G&O Prices Will Shrink China's Imports and Demand
Join Rabobank's Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in China, Lief Chiang, and ACMR's Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the factors behind the high-price environment in G&O and what it means for China's feed demand. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
The Ukraine Metacrisis and Its Impact on Agri Commodity Markets
Russia has been amassing troops around the Ukrainian border and making demands NATO cannot afford to meet. A potential invasion with far-reaching consequences for key agricultural commodities like wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil cannot be ruled out. A retaliatory blanket embargo could result in even higher agri commodity prices. Given the inelasticity of demand, wheat prices in particular c
Agri Commodities Outlook 2022, Part 2: Softs
Soft commodities have seen a price surge in 2021, with coffee topping the price change charts. Join ACMR's Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the risks for coffee and sugar in 2022. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña in Brazil will be key for these commodities, while the container situation will be especially relevant for coffee. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.r
Agri Commodities Outlook 2022, Part 1: Grains & Oilseeds
Join ACMR's Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the high price environment in G&O and the risks ahead for 2022. Wheat, feed grains and vegetable oils all hit multi-year highs in 2022 due to supply issues and strong demand. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña, high input costs and post-Covid demand threaten to keep supplies on the ropes and prices well supported. Please read our
Halloween Special: More Tricks Than Treats
Join Rabobank's ACMR team on this very spooky podcast as Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz share frightening tales about global food inflation that will send a shiver down your spine and might send you running for the candy aisles. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
September 2021 WASDE: Consumers Come in From the Cold
Last Friday, the USDA published a nominally bearish September WASDE report, with higher objective yields and acreage lifting US corn, soy, and cotton production and ending stocks. Yet, CBOT counterintuitively rallied in response as it became clear that increased G&O availability would be gobbled up by sidelined consumers. Join Rabobank's Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they deconstruct th
EU 'Fit for 55' Carbon Reductions: What's the Impact on Canola?
The European Commission has proposed 'Fit for 55', a package of policies aimed at reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. What does this mean for biofuel and, consequently, canola demand? Our G&O analyst in Australia, Dennis Voznesenski, chats with Rabobank's Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds, Stefan Vogel. This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F
Any Catches for Aussie Cotton?
The 2021/22 outlook for the Australian cotton sector appears bright in terms of production prospects and price. To find out if there are any catches, RaboResearch's Agri Commodity Markets Cotton Analyst Andrew Rawlings joins Cheryl Kalisch Gordon of RaboResearch Australia to discuss the global market outlook and local Australian conditions. This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResea
Heavy Rains Batter Europe as Harvest Gets Serious
First, we saw severe dryness in the western US and Canada, which continues. Now, we have heavy rains and even flooding across parts of Europe during harvest. Are these weather events a big deal? Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural Analyst in Australia, is joined by Stefan Vogel, Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds based in Europe, to delve into the details. Please read our disclaimer here: https:
Acreage Gains Prove Hard to Make
In the wake of the USDA's June Acreage and Stocks Reports, we discuss the likely impacts on G&O and cotton markets given the USDA's latest estimates. Expectations for acreage gains were high given higher prices during plantings this season, but mixed weather across the US and stiff competition for acres between crops meant those gains were hard to achieve, especially in corn and soybeans. US June
Export Tax Gains for Australian Croppers and Russian Shoppers
In a bid to reduce food price inflation, the Russian government put in place an export tax on grains & oilseeds in February. What impact will this have on Russian exports to Australia's key export destinations? Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst covering Europe, Africa, & the Black Sea, and Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in Australia, dive into the details. Please read
The Canola Files, Part 3: Golden Prices Flatten China's Demand
Cheryl Kalisch Gordon, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst with Rabobank Australia & New Zealand, is joined by her colleague Lief Chiang, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst based in China, to discuss why the outlook for canola demand in China is flat. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
FX and Inflation to Affect Agri Commodity Prices
The rise of commodity prices in the last year has been supported by the weakness of the US dollar and increasing inflation expectations. While the US dollar has an obvious link to commodity prices, the inflationary concerns are attracting more funds to commodities as they look for an inflation hedge. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, joins Carlos Mera, head of Agri Commodity Markets Research, to di
Bears Come In From the Cold
In the latest installment of the RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Stefan Vogel and Michael Magdovitz review the explosive grain & oilseed price dynamics entering the critical weather market. Soy and corn have breached USD 15 and USD 6 per bushel, respectively, amid adverse weather that has left bears coming in from the cold. Join Stefan and Michael as they comprehensively address acreage, yi
Ukraine-Russia Crisis: Implications for Grains Markets
Over the last month, tensions in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia have boiled over. Troops from both sides have amassed on the border of eastern Ukraine, and now the Russian defense ministry has announced plans for blocking the Kerch Strait, a passageway connecting the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, for foreign war ships and other state ships. What does this mean, and what are the possible imp
April WASDE: Market in the Middle
The April WASDE was destined to be overshadowed by its two explosive siblings – the March Prospective plantings and the new crop May WASDE. Nevertheless, the April WASDE contained important changes at the margins that help set the stage for broad upside price risks to corn, soy, wheat and cotton moving into the US weather market. Join the ACMR team as they discuss the WASDE report and price prospe
You Reap What You Sow
The USDA's Prospective Plantings report came in far below expectations on corn and soy and heaped pressure on yields, whose weak performance would exacerbate seven-year high scarcity. CBOT G&O bears' expectations for an imminent G&O resupply have likely been dashed. Instead, consumers face growing trepidation ahead of an historic weather market and potential for scarcity to extend well into next y
The 2021 Outlook for China's, India's, and Southeast Asia's Edible Oils
Lief Chiang and Oscar Tjakra join to discuss the 2021 outlook for edible oils in China, India, and Southeast Asia. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
ICE #2 Cotton: On a Tear or Torn Apart?
After being ravaged by the pandemic, demand recovery expectations coupled with unrelenting Chinese imports led ICE#2 Cotton prices 30% higher than their pre-pandemic levels. Despite a recent sell-off, prices continue to trade at a premium – but how long can this continue? In this podcast, Agri Commodities Market Research and RaboResearch Australia converse on the current global supply and demand s
Speculation in Commodities to Continue
Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist, joins Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research, to discuss speculation in commodities markets. Funds have reached some extreme positions in both energy and agriculture, and Rabobank analysts do not expect this to stop, as persistently low interest rates and inflation concerns continue to lead funds to invest more into commodities. Please
Softs | Agri Commodities Outlook 2021: Bull Waves Don't Break
The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19's economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand. P
G&O | Agri Commodities Outlook 2021: Bull Waves Don't Break
The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19's economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand. P
Halloween Special: Scary Wheat Prices, Ghostly Chocolate Prices, and Spooky Sugar Prices
The prospect of children coughing at your door may be scary enough at the moment, but there is also a lot of fear in agri commodity markets. In this special edition podcast, we explore some of the worst-case scenarios that could lead to higher prices for wheat, cocoa, and sugar markets. This Halloween may not see many treats, but there could be plenty of tricks. Please read our disclaimer here: ht
Oil Heats Up, and Farmers Get Cooking
Vegetable prices surged near YTD highs last month, buoyed by strong demand and lower production. Join Rabobank's Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz as they analyze MDE Palm Oil and CBOT Soy Oil supply & demand fundamentals and the price risks ahead. Can the Q3 2020 momentum be sustained? Will slowing demand and stronger supply prospects cool the rally? Michael and Oscar discuss these points and th
Sweet, Sweet Speculation: How Funds Are Supporting Sugar
Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to address the growing presence of speculative activity in soft commodity markets – including sugar – and the reasons why. The duo look at how this – along with the fundamental outlook – is set to drive the sugar price. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
Opportunity Awaits the 'Bolled' and Brave – A Ten-Year Outlook for Cotton
Charlie Clack joins Oscar Tjakra to talk opportunities in global cotton over the next decade, following our latest RaboResearch report. On the agenda this episode is the post-pandemic demand recovery, world consumption growth to 2029/30, and opportunities for cotton producers and exporters around the globe. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/di
G&O Market Update July 2020
In this G&O market update we cover the main drivers leading price moves across Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets. The weather has begun to show a greater influence on G&O markets in recent weeks as corn and spring wheat crops move through key development stages. At the time of writing, CBOT Corn prices have eased after an initial rally following lower than expected US stocks and planted acreage and
Coffee Outlook Q2 2020
While the supply side is not without concerns, demand has been dropping due to Covid-19. For now, harvests are going ahead more or less normally in top producer Brazil and also in Colombia. We expect global demand to drop by 0.8% YOY, the first drop in global coffee demand since 1995. The precariousness of demand in certain coffee markets continues to be the focus of attention, particularly in mar
May 2020 G&O Market Update
Brent Crude recovered over 30% so far in May, pushing vegetable oil prices higher. Soy and corn remained subdued in the midst of an abundance of US stocks, good weather, and rapidly progressing US plantings. In particular for soybeans, the pace of Brazilian shipments continues to surprise, with the volumes of US soybeans bought by China a little lackluster in the middle of the worsening rhetoric.
CBOT Springs a Leak – Agri Commodity Markets Monthly April 2020
April witnessed unprecedented weakness in the energy sector and in emerging market currencies. Agri commodities markets were infected by these factors and continued their downward trend. Meanwhile, the threat of supply chains disruptions largely eased, as agricultural activities avoided major port and border closures, and the price risks shifted to demand destruction. Looking ahead, the spring pla
Havoc in the Hamper, Hell in the Handbasket
Join the ACMR team as they discuss the wild ag commodity price swings amid market concerns for demand destruction and supply chain stability. For energy-related products like sugar, soy oil, palm oil, and corn, the energy price declines – resulting from Covid-19 and the internecine OPEC price war – are expected to cause substantial demand destruction for biodiesel and ethanol. For vital food and f
Slow Recovery: Coronavirus Will Extend the Feed-Demand Hangover
China G&O analyst Lief Chiang and ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the spread of coronavirus and the threat it poses to already fragile Chinese and global feed demand. Lief and Michael then consider the implications of coronavirus on China's 'phase-one' trade deal compliance, US summer plantings, and CBOT Corn and Soybean prices through 2020. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabo
What Brexit Could Mean for Global Sugar
Brexit is anticipated to have far-reaching impacts around the world, with many industries – including sugar – feeling the effects. Charlie Clack and Maria Afonso join forces to see if Brexit could, however, also translate into opportunities for the world's major sugar exporters. This podcast episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia/New Zealand Please read our disclaime
Is Sugar's Sweet Start to 2020 Here to Stay?
Sugar prices have gained ground in 2020, owing to a catalogue of reasons including speculative buying and global supply and demand. Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to outline the reasons, risks, and outlook for the year ahead. This episode also appears on our RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand sister podcast Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/01
US-China: Phase One
What does 'phase one' mean for US agriculture? Is it a return to normal, or is the old normal gone for good? RaboResearch grain & oilseed analysts Erin FitzPatrick and Steve Nicholson talk through some possibilities with Andrew Tasker from Rabobank's Markets team. This episode originally appeared on our RaboResearch F&A North America sister podcast Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.r
Coffee Rally Keeps Traders Awake and Farmers Happy
Arabica coffee prices rallied 40% in the last two months on the back of a frantic speculative rally. This is in sharp contrast to the low-price trend seen over the last two years, in which coffee prices traded below cost of production. Commodity analysts Carlos Mera and Andrew Rawlings discuss the reasons for the rally and where it may lead. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.co
Hot Oil: Vegetable Oil Prices Rise to the Top
The vegetable oil complex has enjoyed strong price increases in 2019. In this ACMR podcast episode, grain & oilseed analysts Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz review vegetable oil market fundamentals and price catalysts for CBOT Soy Oil, MDE Palm Oil, and Matif Rapeseed. Listen in as Oscar and Michael share Rabobank's price outlook for vegetable oils in 2020. Please read our disclaimer here: http
Upsides in a Burdened Global Grain Market
Rabobank's Global G&O Strategist, Stefan Vogel, joins Australian-based Senior G&O Analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon to talk grains. They discuss where we expect upside in a market burdened by supply and trade war troubles, what might undermine that upside, and what this means in the context of Australia's 2019/20, again, drought-affected grain harvest. This episode also appeared on our sister podcast
Sugar: Volatility Ahead
In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Australia podcast, South-East Asia Sugar expert Charles Clack joins ACMR senior analyst Carlos Mera to discuss the outlook for sugar prices. While the current glut in the market is manifested in heavy deliveries of both raws and whites, the market is turning towards a global deficit in 2019/20. The drop in estimates for the 2019/20 crops in Thailand, India and the
Oops!... WASDE Did It Again!
Two months after publishing a planting intentions report that was viewed as overstating US Corn acreage, the USDA completed a second survey that confirmed its initial findings, increased yields, and left the market shocked and deflated. Join Rabobank's Agri Commodities Markets Research Team as they discuss the latest WASDE report results, and their wider significance across grain & oilseeds market
The Impact of ASF on Chinese Feed Demand
In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Asia podcast, G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss his outlook for China's soymeal and feed usage through 2020. In 2019, African Swine Fever-related culling of up to 50% of China's hog herd, with further downside possible, will reduce soybean imports and meal usage year-on-year. Reductions will be muted and short-lived, however, r
US Weather Gets Rough – The USDA Gets Tough
A month of persistent rain across the Midwest kept corn farmers out of the fields and forced the USDA to do an about-face on their heavy 2019/20 balance sheet projections, cutting carry-out by 810m bu, the largest monthly decline in 30 years. With wet weather in the forecast, additional production downgrades are possible – for corn and soybeans. In this week's ACMR podcast episode, G&O analyst Mic
Heavy US Rains, Buoyant Prices
Join Stefan Vogel, head of ACMR and global G&O strategist, as he comments on the excessive rainfall across the US, which caused an impressive price rally of over 20% in CBOT Corn and Wheat. While rains delays US corn plantings and will likely result in an unprecedented record number of unplanted acres, US wheat quality is at risk. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge
The Impact of the IMO 2020 Regulation on the Grains & Oilseeds Industry
On 1 January 2020, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement a 0.5% global sulphur cap for marine fuels. With less than a year to go, there are still uncertainties about the global availability of low sulphur marine fuels needed to fulfil this regulation. This regulation is implemented for the marine industry but also impacts the grains and oilseed industry. Oscar Tjakra joins C
The Rise of Brazilian Cotton: A Good Yarn?
Brazil has rapidly risen to become one of the world's largest cotton production and export regions. Victor Ikeda joins Charlie Clack from São Paulo to chat about the rise of the cotton industry there... and what this could mean for Australia going forward. This episode appeared earlier on our Australia/New Zealand sister channel Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/d
Trade Optimism Shaken by US Tariff Escalation
From early November until last week, CBOT markets enjoyed a US-China trade war hiatus as China initiated goodwill purchases of US agricultural goods, the US withheld tariff hikes, and both sides sought a negotiated settlement. ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz and G&O analyst Lief Chiang discuss how that calm was shattered by Sunday's statement from President Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods.
What Lies Ahead in 2019/20 for Grains & Oilseeds?
ACMR Head and G&O Sector Strategist Stefan Vogel joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the recent price breaks in wheat, corn, and soybeans, along with some thoughts ahead of the USDA's first 2019/20 WASDE in early May. Stefan and Michael discuss bearish G&O catalysts, including fierce export competition, the African swine fever epidemic, generally positive global crop conditions, and a
Coffee Wars: Brazil Is Winning
Arabica coffee prices are at 13-year lows. At only USc 90/lb, arabica prices are now below cost of production in virtually all arabica-producing countries aside from Brazil – and over 10m coffee farmers will be working themselves into poverty. Senior Commodity Analyst Carlos Mera talks about his supply/demand expectations, the fundamental risks surrounding the coffee market, and what can be done t
Trade War Special: China's 55 Billion Dollar F&A Wish List
In the latest episode of the ACMR podcast, China G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss China's potential F&A shopping list under a trade deal. Amid reports that China has offered to more than double its pre-trade-war purchases to 55bn USD, Lief runs through the products besides soybeans that would strategically benefit China, including corn ethanol to achieve the E
WASDE: Counting Stocks Amid Trade Talks
Join Stefan Vogel (ACMR Head and G&O Global Strategist) and Michael Magdovitz (ACMR Analyst) as they discuss the latest WASDE, US stocks, and winter plantings reports. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
January 2019: Grains and Oilseeds - Smooth Ride, but Flying Blind
Geopolitics and weather risk upside are driving G&O prices higher, after a relatively steady month in January. Michael Magdovitz and Charlie Clack discuss navigating these markets amid the US government shutdown and unpredictable Brazilian weather. The major question is whether Chinese guarantees can facilitate a deal before March 1st trade tariff deadline—Rabobank sees short-term upside, but for
January 2019: Smooth Ride, but Flying Blind – Softs markets
So far, January has reflected the higher risk appetite, with Brent surging and the Brazilian real gaining versus the US dollar. Charlie Clack and Carlos Mera chat about the latest ICE Coffee, Sugar, and Cotton markets, outlining Rabobank's fundamental and price outlooks for the season ahead. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer
The G20 Trade War Truce
During the G20 meeting in Argentina, US President Donald Trump agreed to freeze tariff increases on China for a period of 90 days to allow trade negotiators to proceed in good faith. During that hiatus, Premier Xi agreed to resume importing substantial quantities of US food & agriculture products into China that were largely frozen by both tariff & non-tariff measures. Rabobank's F&A China industr
Soft Commodities Outlook for 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing
Carlos Mera and Charles Clack discuss what's in store for soft commodity markets—including sugar, coffee and cotton—in the year ahead, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing. Global production prospects, along with currency and geopolitical shifts provide the backdrop to Rabobank's 2019 price outlook. Please read our disclaimer here: https:/
Grains & Oilseeds Outlook for 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing
Michael Magdovitz and Charles Clack talk over the big price drivers for major grain & oilseed markets in 2019, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing. Trade wars, acreage shifts and major weather risks and just a few of the topics which come into the spotlight. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/01
